Bihar Election 2025: The Poll of Polls
A comprehensive analysis of all major exit polls, indicating a razor-thin margin in a high-stakes contest.
The Final Projection: Poll of Polls
Our "Poll of Polls" aggregates data from five major polling agencies (Axis My India, C-Voter, Today's Chanakya, Matrize, PMARQ). The final projection points to the NDA just crossing the majority mark of 122 seats, but the tight margin signals a photo finish where every seat counts.
Race to the Majority
The Poll of Polls projection of 124 seats for the NDA is visualized here against the total 243 seats. The red line indicates the crucial 122-seat "Magic Number" needed to form the government.
How the Pollsters Call It: Seat Projections
No two pollsters saw the election identically. The projections ranged from a clear NDA majority to a potential hung assembly, highlighting the race's volatility. This chart compares the average seat projections from each leading agency.
Poll of Polls: Vote Share
Vote share reveals the underlying political currents. The data shows an extremely close contest, with less than 3 percentage points separating the two main alliances in our aggregate analysis.
Pollster Consensus: Vote Share Battle
This chart plots the vote share projections from all five pollsters. It illustrates the tight clustering and variance in how agencies mapped the NDA vs. MGB vote share, with most agreeing on a highly competitive landscape.
The Regional Battleground
Bihar is not a monolith. The. election was fought and won in its distinct regions. Our analysis shows a classic divide, with alliances dominating their strongholds and battling fiercely for swing areas like Mithila and Bhojpur.
What's Driving the Voter?
Beyond alliances, key issues shape voter decisions. Economic concerns like unemployment and inflation were paramount in this election, dwarfing other traditional factors according to polling data.
Alliance Composition
The two major alliances are complex coalitions. Understanding their internal composition is key to analyzing post-election scenarios. This diagram shows the key partners within each bloc.
National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
Mahagathbandhan (MGB)
Deep Dive: Seat Contestation by Party
This analysis, based on candidate filings, shows how many seats each party *contested*, which is different from the exit poll *projections*. Note the MGB total exceeds 243 due to "friendly fights" where alliance partners competed against each other in some constituencies.
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